A $100 bet against Bieber will net you $8,000 in profit. A $100 bet against Mayweather will net you $2.22. . The sportsbook will adjust the odds until it does. They will adjust the odds to make sure things are balanced if it does not change too much.
Up until the end of the fight, adjustments and odds changes will be made. Although they won't be perfect, the sportsbooks will do their best to make things work.
Spread bets are the same, except they will change the spread spread rather than changing the payout odds. They may alter the payout odds slightly in rare cases if they don't really want to change the spread, but this is rarely.
The odds of the action being discouraged or encouraged by the sportsbook are changed to try and deter them.
- Bieber (+5000)
- Mayweather (-4500).
If the sportsbook correctly sets the line and all bettors agree to it, they will get the same amount of money on each side of the bet. If everyone agrees that the Patriots should win by 8, half the bettors will likely bet on the Browns, and the other half will bet on the Patriots. It doesn't always work out like this. The sportsbook may not always be right with their lines. It's difficult to predict the public's bets. The sportsbook will often lose money if they bet too heavily on one side of the bet.
The book will adjust the odds to make it more attractive to customers to place bets. Let's take a look at some of the scenarios that we have used in our previous examples. Let's suppose that Bieber is found out to have secretly taken steroids and boxing lessons. They believe he has a better chance than they originally thought. Many people place bets on Bieber to back their view, but not many on Mayweather.
The sportsbook must try to increase the number of people who bet on Mayweather, and less on Bieber to correct this problem. They adjust the payouts to do this. They adjust the odds to make a Bet on Bieber pay less than it did before and a Bet on Mayweather pay more. These are the original odds and the profits you would make on a $100 wager.
- Bieber (+9500) = $9,500
- Mayweather (-9000), = $1.11
The Goal of a Sportsbook
Understanding the workings behind the scenes is key to understanding why lines move. Sportsbooks are not charitable organizations. These are businesses that offer betting on sports competitions and make a lot. This is probably something you already know. This is something that you may not have known: although the sportsbooks offer bets, they do not like to gamble. They want to ensure that every bet they offer will make them money.
How does this happen? The sportsbook wants to make sure they get the same amount of money for both sides of a contest. They can use the winning money to pay the winners if they have $10 total bets on Team A and $10 total for Team B. If Team A wins they will take $10 from Team B's losers and pay the winners of Team A. They do the same as Team A, but reverse it if they win .
How does the sportsbook make its money? You may have noticed that each bet is taken a little less by the sportsbook if you've ever placed one. This is called the house rake, or the "juice". They do not pay the $10 full back to the winners. Instead, they take a small percentage of the profits as their profit for facilitating the bets.
Let's take a look at a real wager to ensure you are clear before we proceed. This spread bet is on an NFL Football game.
- Denver Broncos -6 (-110)
- Dallas Cowboys +6 (-110)
You will receive $9.09 back if you place $10 on the Denver Broncos. The sportsbook juice is $0.91 less than you're getting back. Here's what the accounting will look like if the sportsbook wins $10 on the Broncos or $10 on the Cowboys.
- Spend $10 on the Broncos (Casino offers $10).
- You can win $10 on the Cowboys (Casino offers $20).
Broncos win, and bettors are owed $10 for their original wager and $9.09 for their profit.
The Casino pays $19.09 back to the Broncos' bettors (Casino gives $0.91).
This bet has brought in $0.91 for the casino.
As you can see, regardless of who wins, the sportsbook will make a profit. They're not in the gambling business. They could have each game have exactly the same amount of money placed on both sides, and still make a small profit. The goal of the sportsbook's is to have the exact same amount of money on each side of every bet.
How does this happen? They shift the odds and lines to encourage or discourage the action they want. Let's take you through each step.
- The initial line.
- Reacting to bets.
Setting the Initial Line
The first thing a sportsbook must do is to set the initial line. This is how it should look. Imagine Floyd Mayweather and Justin Bieber going on a boxing match. If your intelligence is higher than 10, then Floyd Mayweather, one of the most decorated boxers ever, will be destroying Justin Bieber. Who would you choose to bet on if the sportsbook allowed you to place a bet on this fight? You and all others would place bets on Floyd Mayweather. He would win, and all of the money would flow in to the sportsbook.
This would make it impossible for the sportsbook to continue their business. What do they do? They establish the payout odds in an attempt to discourage Mayweather's action and to encourage J-Biebs to take action. They will set the odds/line that you'll get a lot of money if Bieber wins, and very little if Mayweather loses.
They might, for example, set the starting point at this:
- Bieber (+9500)
- Mayweather (-9000).
This means that you could win $100 if you placed $100 on each one of these "fighters"on the homepage .
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